Chapter 51 Luck

Flip a coin and what do you get? Probability tells us it's equally likely to fall on heads or tails. Flip a coin a hundred times and what do you expect to see? Most people expect to see an even split of heads and tails. That's approximately what I saw. But what I didn't expect to see was 15 heads in a row. If I were 'willing' heads, I'd be thinking I'm the master of the universe. And if I had put money on heads, during that run, I'd be thinking I had a valuable skill.

But we forget, I know I did, that a 50 per cent chance of getting heads or tails doesn't mean you're going to get  an even distribution. Heads will not always follow tails. But when we get a string of repeated outcomes, we find it hard to believe it's random. So we conclude that we made it happen, not that we're lucky. Or more to the point: if things go our way, we're quick to take credit. And if they don't, we're quick to blame others.

Deep down we know we can never be sure about some things. And those things are not limited to the flip of a coin. Life is full of situations that have uncertain outcomes. So we routinely confuse skill with luck.

For example: you read a share-trading newsletter. It makes a string of great predictions. You earn a packet and recommend the newsletter to your friends. They follow the advice and lose or luck? Or take this example. You join an online dating agency. You have a string of bad dates so you conclude the agency is the website. She ignores your advice, signs up and meets her future husband. Is the agency bad or was it you?

Succinctly put: when things go our way, we see patterns where there are none. Then we create explanations for these perceived patterns. And make misguided decisions based on other people. So we don't see our mistakes, and we don't learn from them.

Our ability to spot patterns and draw conclusions can help or hinder us. Without it we'd see no correlations between our actions and outcomes. There would be no rules for success, and no reason to plan. But, on the other hand, our sensitivity to patterns makes it difficult for us to recognize for us to recognize luck. It's a tricky situation.

But understand this. Life is never certain. So we will never know for sure if our actions will lead to successful outcomes. But, be very clear, we can be sure some things will happen with regularity, For instance: if you step out of a plane, you're going to hit to ground. If you bite your tongue, it's going to hurt. Likewise, when it comes to living more fulfilling life, if you action it's going to make a difference.